Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends

Abstract. Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes due to natural and anthropogenic drivers in short-duration records increases uncertainty trend acceleration estimates. When making regional coastal management adaptation decisions, it is important understand the of these account for periods reduced or enhanced change. The variance decadal trends about global mean quantified mapped around coastlines Atlantic, Pacific, Indian oceans from historical CMIP6 runs a high-resolution ocean model forced by reanalysis data. We reconstruct coastal, via linear relationships with climate mode oceanographic indices. Using this approach, more than one-third can be explained indices at 24.6 % 73.1 grid cells located within 25 km coast oceans. At 10.9 world's coastline, explains over two-thirds trend. By investigating steric, manometric, gravitational components independently, apparent that much dominated manometric signal, consequence open-ocean steric signal propagating onto continental shelf. Additionally, gravitational, rotational, solid-Earth deformation (GRD) should not ignored total. There are locations such as Persian Gulf African west where historically small susceptible future hydrology and/or ice mass drive intensified GRD change above mean. magnitude explainable modes study indicates an projections short- mid-term